Just don’t change a thing.
That’s the advice Red Sox manager Alex Cora gave to Triston Casas after his first week in the big leagues, when Casas wasn’t yet seeing results but had displayed an advanced plate approach that made it safe to declare the 22-year-old rookie had one of, if not the best, eye on the Red Sox.
After one week in the big leagues.
Since then, he’s hammered a few no-doubt home runs off a few big-name pitchers while managing at-bats like he’s Kevin Youkilis in 2008 and flashing smooth leather at first base.
But before we spend the greater part of the next six months getting excited about Casas — because, let’s be honest, unless the words “payroll flexibility” do anything for you, there isn’t a whole lot to be excited about right now — it would be malpractice not to spend at least a few more minutes remembering how the Red Sox got here.
Read this in a Jerry Seinfeld voice: what’s the deal with their decision-making at first base?
If you want to cut the Red Sox some slack for thinking Bobby Dalbec was their best option to be the starting first baseman on a $240-million team back in April, that’s fine. Dalbec had just completed another Dalbec-like spring training in which he hit .333 with three homers and an OPS over 1.000. Dalbec dominates in spring training. He’s done that every year.
If it was enough for the Sox to ignore his largely disappointing season in 2021 and decide that he was the guy for 2022, so be it. Give him a month and see what he can do.
By the time the Sox got through April, you’d think they would’ve reconsidered.
Dalbec finished April with a .147 average, .449 OPS, one home run and 23 strikeouts to just four walks in 75 plate appearances.
He was certifiably one of the worst five players in the big leagues, at any position. He was worth negative-0.6 WAR, ranked 173rd out of 175 players in contact percentage (62%) and 174th in called-strike/whiff percentage (36%).
One month is a small sample size, except that it was consistent with what the Sox had seen for most of 2021, when Dalbec’s lack of production prompted an August trade for Kyle Schwarber, who replaced Dalbec in the lineup despite never playing a game of first base in his life.
And yet, nine months after deciding Dalbec wasn’t a proper first baseman on a playoff team in ’21, the Red Sox had hopes that he’d be a proper first baseman on a playoff team in ’22.
Meanwhile, in Triple-A Worcester, they had one of the best first base prospects in baseball displaying a premier plate approach and understanding of the strike zone. Casas wasn’t tearing the cover off the ball just yet, but he did finish April with a .372 on-base percentage and .828 OPS with 22 strikeouts to 16 walks.
He also hits for power and learned to play a smooth first base that earned him the distinction as the best defensive player in the International League at his position, according to a survey of IL managers done by Baseball America.
Still, big league teams aren’t always in the position to make quick changes. Knee-jerk reactions don’t often go over well in the clubhouse.
But a $240-million team that couldn’t get anything going on offense (or defense) and was sinking quickly while playing in a division with four other competitive teams might have wanted to act with some level of urgency.
Instead, they kept sending Dalbec out there, occasionally mixing in at-bats for Franchy Cordero, and hoping the results would change.
Maybe if this was the Washington Nationals or Baltimore Orioles, or the Miami Marlins or Kansas City Royals, or any other small-to-mid-market team that was clearly in the middle of a rebuild, it would’ve been fine to continuing to give regular playing time to a 27-year-old who had, in three seasons, yet to prove that he could be a contributor.
But it remains difficult to excuse the Red Sox for keeping Casas in the minors while expecting to wait until mid-summer to re-evaluate.
Well, Casas busted his ankle in the middle of May and the Sox were suddenly without options. They could’ve made an early-summer trade to add an experienced first baseman, like the Mariners and Mets both did, but they chose to do nothing.
And — surprise, surprise — the results didn’t change.
In five months playing regularly on an offensive team that plays at an offensive ballpark, Dalbec contributed little. He’s been worth negative-0.3 WAR on the season while hitting .209 with a .280 OBP, .647 OPS and 11 homers to go with 116 strikeouts in 347 plate appearances.
In three weeks, Casas has instantly become an above-replacement-level player. He’s barely found his footing in the big leagues but has already accumulated 41% of Dalbec’s walk total, 36% of his home run total and 22% of his RBI total.
He’s looking as solid as they come on the defensive side of the ball and even stole a base, just for good measure.
Ask the Red Sox what they want to see differently from Casas and they’ll tell you what Cora said: nothing.
He’s the guy the Sox have been looking for. And he’s been here the whole time.
