The tables that follow detail how 2018 Astros minor league pitchers performed relative to their league(s)'s starting pitcher or relief pitcher qualifiers per my Fielding and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes (FaBIO) statistical evaluation system. Click on these to conjure up last offseason's FanPosts featuring the 2017 results of full-season pitchers and 2017 results of short-season pitchers.

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Methods

Each non-bunt, non-pitcher-batting plate appearance is sorted into 1 of the following 12 categories, and the pitcher is charged with the league's typical 2018 runs value for said event.

1. BB or HBP, 2. K, 3. IFFB, 4. GB to pull-third, 5. GB to center-third, ..., 7. LD to pull-third, ..., 12. OFFB to oppo-third

Each pitcher's final runs per plate appearance value is compared to the league peer group's mean and standard deviation for that parameter to obtain their Overall Rating, which can be further split to examine how the pitcher performed versus Opposite-Handed Batters (OHB) and versus Same-Handed Batters (SHB). A Batted Ball Rating is determined similarly after omitting all BB+HBP and K events (individual components of the Batted Ball Rating are also computed such as GB Rating, IFFB Rating, etc., using GB per batted ball, IFFB per batted ball, ... to better assess its origins and sustainability). A Control (CTL) Rating (using BB+HBP per PA) and K Rating (using K per PA) are also determined. A Youth Rating is determined by comparing the pitcher's age relative to the mean and standard deviation (SD) for that role (SP or RP) in their league (the reliever sample in a league tends to be a year or two older, on average).

Each rating will be expressed on a 100 to 0 scale where the number indicates the expected percentage of league peers beaten on the stat. 50 denotes league-average with 84 being one SD above average ("plus"), 97 being 2 SD above average ("plus plus"), 16 being one SD below average ("minus"), and 3 being 2 SD below average ("minus minus"). In the tables that follow, an asterisk after the name denotes a southpaw, and a green number indicates a plus or better rating while a red one indicates a minus or worse rating.

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Results: 2018 Ratings of Astros Full-Season MiLB P

Starter-ish Workload Pitchers

2016 Texas A&M freshman/2017 juco sophomore Tyler Ivey posted the highest Overall Rating among the 859 MiLB P who topped 300 batters faced. The K-heavy/forward-splitsy line of newly 40-man-rostered Bryan Abreu mirrored that of fellow 2018 breakout performer Josh James. Top MLB pitching prospect Forrest Whitley continues to dominate OHB and SHB alike and mostly needs to learn how to pitch within the strike zone with fastballs/cutters and therein better avoid the pulled OFFB. Chad Donato may be evolving into a viable MLB SP prospect from a prior K/IFFB-heavy profile. Beyond Ivey, 2017 NCAA juniors Peter Solomon (99 Overall), Brandon Bielak (95 Overall), and Corbin Martin (94 Overall) also posted some of the strongest all-around 2018 FaBIO lines from that collegiate draft class. Southpaw surprise Ryan Hartman (97 Overall) and the departed Patrick Sandoval (95 Overall) rated similarly per FaBIO. Enoli Paredes and Cristian Javier project in the direction of short-relief forward-splits K artists. After sporting strong 2017 OHB marks, J.B. Bukauskas posted quite forward OHB/SHB splits in an abbreviated 2018 that mirrored those of his 2015-2016 NCAA work; the OHB and CTL blemishes could factor into the front office's willingness to include him in trade proposals dating back to at least August.

Edgardo Sandoval (93 Overall, above) made a sneaky strong return from an earlier 2017 Tommy John surgery while posting dominant OHB marks. The FaBIO profile of Parker Mushinski (84 Overall) parallels that of fellow southpaw Framber Valdez (88 Overall) in the K and GB dimensions albeit with much poorer control. The performance of Rogelio Armenteros was down just enough on just about every parameter versus his 2017 AA/AAA campaign to drag his Overall Rating just below plus territory.

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Such low IFFB and LD Avoid Ratings conjures up concerns about the caliber of movement on the primary fastball of Cionel Perez (67 Overall, below). If not for outrighting and enabling Mike Hauschild (61 Overall) to depart via free agency, the Blue Jays might have rostered four 2018 Astros MiLBers in their 2019 AAA rotation at various points between he, David Paulino, Trent Thornton, and Hector Perez.

2018 OHB struggles perhaps contributed to inclusion of Jorge Alcala in the trade return for Ryan Pressly. Definite work-in-progress Jairo Solis would not rank among the organization's top dozen pitching prospects in the eyes of FaBIO today, even sans the reported Tommy John surgery. Former top organizational prospect Frances Martes could only muster a single Overall Rating point before succumbing to Tommy John. In what was a rather historic performance season for Astros full-season SP, 36/43 (84%) pitchers tabled above topped league-average on Overall Rating for the season; 20/43 rated plus or better Overall while 27/43 rated plus or better at the K.

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Reliever-ish Workload Pitchers

20-year-old Dominican Willy Collado led full-season relievers on the strength of non-batted-ball outcomes and SHB performance. After returning from suspension Dean Deetz fared well at all but his typical weak area of control and seems in line to get longer looks with the big league club in 2019. Expect Reymin Guduan to see more LOOGY-biased work at the MLB level during what stands to be his final option year owing in part to such strong 2018 SHB marks.

A July trade sent James Hoyt (69 Overall, above) to Cleveland for then Midwest Leaguer Tommy DeJuneas (52 Overall, below). The 2018 FaBIO marks of Riley Ferrell (52 Overall) provide some clues as to why the Astros did not protect him in advance of the upcoming Rule 5 draft and explain why his name is unlikely to be called come then.

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Results: 2018 Ratings of Astros Short-Season MiLB P

Starter-ish Workload Pitchers

Alfredi Jimenez scorched the DSL Northwest Division as an 18-year-old before making 3 stateside GCL starts. Massive 6'6" 256-pound Brazilian Heitor Tokar mostly overpowered his DSL opposition with weak-contact-inducing fastballs at the tender age of 17. 2017 mini-debutant Ernesto Jaquez preceded Jimenez to the GCL and even reached the NYPL for 2 cups of coffee. Manny Ramirez ranks among the organization's hardest throwers but skews power relievery in both FaBIO profile and physique.

2018 high school 2nd-rounder Jayson Schroeder (71 Overall, above) displayed solid to good fundamentals for the most part in a 70-batter GCL pro debut.

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2018 6th-rounder R.J. Freure (55 Overall, below) had posted a 99 Overall over a comparable per game workload as a University of Pittsburgh true sophomore.

17-year-old Cuban southpaw Julio Robaina was aggressively assigned to the GCL for his pro debut but had issues there with control and the pulled OFFB. Years older countryman Elian Rodriguez somehow managed to underperform a 1 Overall Rating from his 2017 affiliated debut.

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Reliever-ish Workload Pitchers

A number of 2018 draftees land here, led by 14th-rounder J.P. France (former Tulane SP who tossed longer relief for Mississippi State as a 2018 5th-year graduate transfer), 28th-rounder Joey Gonzalez (Stetson junior SP), and 8th-rounder Austin Hansen (Oklahoma junior RP).

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2018 5th-rounder Cody Deason (9 Overall) posted uninspiring marks over shorter stints in the wake of a spring spent toiling as a University of Arizona starter (65 Overall, 27 BF/G).

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Exit Poll

FaBIO has narrowed the candidates for 2018 Astros MiLB Pitcher of the Year down to eight.

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